A submarine mysteriously vanished beneath the Doomsday glacier; here’s what it managed to transmit before disappearing.

Scientists have officially halted the search for the famous robotic submarine Run. A year ago, it dove under the Doomsday Glacier, discovered inexplicable anomalies, and then mysteriously disappeared. Let’s recall that this "terrifying" name refers to the Thwaites Glacier, which spans 120,000 square kilometers (an area larger than the Kirov region in Russia). The glacier's thickness reaches up to 2 km in places. If it breaks away from Antarctica and floats into warmer waters, melting will cause sea levels to rise by at least half a meter, potentially over 3 meters in the long run. This would lead to a global flood.

LAST THING THE SUBMARINE SAW: DROPS OF TEARS

The Run submarine was considered the pinnacle of technical ingenuity. Losing it seemed impossible. Its systems were incredibly reliable, and most importantly, its advanced navigation technology could return the vessel to its starting point even if all external signals faded. Experts admit: there are simply no reasons why Run could have sunk into the cold waters of Antarctica.

Run was the first in history to bravely dive under the Doomsday Glacier in 2019. It was during this expedition that unique data was collected, making the glacier a dark hero in newspaper headlines. It turned out that the colossal ice mass is being intensely eroded from below by ocean waters. The glacier is melting much faster than it appears from the outside.

A year ago, researchers returned with the submarine to the glacier, and the initial data appeared extremely strange and alarming. The submarine discovered patterns reminiscent of tears or desert dunes. The largest of these formations stretched for half a kilometer. Scientists initially concluded that the cavities were caused by the Earth's rotation: ocean water, pushed by the planet itself, year after year creates repetitive shapes on the melting ice. However, there was no complete clarity, so the submarine was sent on another expedition deeper under the glacier, from where it never returned.

Crack in the ice

Photo: NASA.

HUMANITY IS POWERLESS

The Doomsday Glacier is terrifying for two reasons. First, it is simply enormous and relies on mere chance to stay intact. If it breaks off, it will drift into warmer seas, melt, and the volume of water contained within will raise global ocean levels by 60 cm. Second, the glacier acts as a keystone that holds other glaciers in place. If it collapses, the icy shield of Antarctica will crumble, allowing other glaciers to slide freely into the ocean. In this case, sea levels could rise by 3 to 4 meters.

The grim truth revealed by the Run submarine during its last dive is that humanity is incapable of doing anything.

The glacier has remained stable for so long because there was a thin "film" of cold water between it and the ocean. This film prevented the glacier from melting. After 80 years, a breach appeared in this "film," causing the glacier to "stir," the reasons for which are unclear (clearly not due to global warming). Scientists have established a domino effect. Tides, driven by the gravitational pull of the Moon, push warm water toward the ice twice a day, eroding the protective "film," which is now nearly nonexistent.

Conclusions drawn by the Run team: the Doomsday Glacier is doomed, and it seems that it will indeed drag the icy shield of the southern continent along with it.

Photos taken from orbit this year indicate that the glacier is freeing itself from the last "connector" that linked it to the mainland. A new giant crack has appeared in the glacier. Are we counting down the months?

Mysterious drops of tears on the reverse side of the glacier. Photo: interestingengineering.com

WHOM WILL IT FLOOD

There are many interactive maps online that visually show what will happen to coastlines at various sea levels.

The good news for Russia: a half-meter rise in ocean levels will have little effect on us. Small areas in the Arctic and along the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov will be flooded. St. Petersburg, Sochi, and Yalta, as well as Vladivostok, will remain unaffected.

A 3-meter sea rise will, of course, have a more significant impact. Small flood zones will form near Vladivostok and Chukotka, serious flooding will occur along the coast of Yakutia, and the outskirts of St. Petersburg will be slightly affected. The most significant problems are shown on the map around Azov: there, the sea will begin to encroach and head toward Rostov-on-Don. Sochi will again remain untouched.

Of course, everything looks smooth on the map; in reality, the small red (flooded) areas conceal large territories where people live and work. But compared to what will happen in Southeast Asia, where entire countries will be submerged, such as Bangladesh with a population larger than that of Russia, it is manageable.

There are reassuring (conditionally "good") and not-so-good news in all this. The bad news, aside from flooding, is that the world's oceans, having absorbed fresh water, will change, and with them, the climate. The climate is already behaving erratically. The reassuring news is that even if the glacier breaks away tomorrow, it will drift and melt for decades.

Flood map from rising sea levels. Photo: coastal.climatecentral.org

BY THE WAY

The global ocean level is already rising. After all, both the Antarctic ice shield and the Greenland ice are melting overall. But for now, it’s only by millimeters, at worst a couple of centimeters per year.