Don't blindly follow the advice of centenarians; their experiences reflect the errors of survivors, not universal truths.

Everyone desires to live a long and happy life. It seems that the most reliable way to extend one’s lifespan is to leverage the experiences of centenarians, those unique individuals who have managed to surpass the 100-year mark. However, Dr. Bradley Elliott from the University of Westminster, a specialist in the physiology of aging, warns: never follow their advice! Why? Because the recommendations of super-centenarians are a classic example of the “survivorship bias,” which can lead people astray.

FROM THE "KP" FILES

What is the "survivorship bias"?

This term gained traction in scientific discourse largely due to the Hungarian mathematician Abraham Wald. During World War II, he was part of a research group at Columbia University tasked with minimizing the losses of American bombers from enemy fire. Wald analyzed the damage statistics of aircraft that had been attacked and subsequently repaired. He suggested adding extra armor to the areas of the aircraft that had the fewest bullet holes. When asked, “Why?” he provided an unexpected response: the most vulnerable parts of the bomber were not where the most damage was visible, because those aircraft managed to survive and return to base. The areas that needed protection were those that appeared “clean” on the returning planes (namely, the engines and fuel tanks). When bullets hit those locations, the aircraft simply didn’t return. But those cases were not considered because only the “surviving” bombers made it into the statistics.

WHAT IS THE "ERROR" OF SUPER-CENTENARIANS?

At first glance, what do bombers have to do with centenarians? Bradley Elliott believes the issue lies in the far-reaching conclusions drawn from studying the lifestyles of those who have caught the attention of newspapers and television, whose stories are promoted by global media. Scientists and laypeople alike immediately become curious: what did these individuals eat, what habits did they have, and how do they explain their longevity? However, upon deeper investigation, it often turns out that many well-known figures become headline heroes completely undeservedly. Consequently, society spreads useless advice while ignoring the life hacks of those whose experiences are genuinely significant.

- Do you think I’m exaggerating? - says Elliott. - Then name just one businessman from the “Forbes” list who became wealthy by reading numerous autobiographies of millionaires sharing the secrets of their success. There are none! Millionaires love to tell stories about the tricks that helped them amass their fortunes, like: “We started with a workshop in a garage, and now I’m the head of a global corporation.” But the catch is that these tricks do not work for others. The same situation applies to extreme centenarians.

MYTHOLOGY OF ETERNAL ELDERLY PEOPLE

As an example, the researcher cites Jeanne Calment, the Guinness World Record holder: she lived longer than anyone else in the world — 122 years and 164 days. She often attributed her remarkable longevity to a relaxed and carefree lifestyle.

Her story is a great advertisement for a lifestyle where one spares no expense. Jeanne married a wealthy man, so she never had to work. She loved cycling but also indulged in drinking wine and smoking cigarettes well into her old age...

- Does this mean that to live a long life we should seek a wealthy spouse? Quit our jobs and lounge around with a glass of red wine and a cigarette? - asks Dr. Elliott. - In this case, we are dealing with the very “survivorship bias,” because we have the controversial example of Jeanne right before us. Yet we ignore the experiences of millions who did the same but, due to such an unhealthy lifestyle, died much earlier than reaching the age of 100.

CALCULATED - WEPT

But the most shocking part is that Jeanne’s example (and not just hers!) is likely a fabrication. In scientific circles, there are reasonable suspicions that Jeanne was actually her daughter Yvonne, who wanted to avoid paying inheritance taxes.

- There is one telling detail: when Ms. Calment became famous, she first burned her personal belongings. But researchers of the phenomenon prefer not to mention this, - says Sol Newman, a demographer from Oxford University and author of a controversial study that questions many postulates in the science of longevity that we take for granted. Newman asserts that many outstanding cases of “eternal life” are due to bureaucratic confusion, clerical errors, and pension fraud.

- For over a hundred years, it was believed that the first confirmed case of a person reaching the age of 110 was that of Canadian Pierre Jubert, with meticulously studied documents stating that he was born in 1701 and died in 1814, living for 113 years and 124 days, - writes Sol Newman. - But only in 1990 did it become clear that it was a case of a father and son mistakenly taken for one person. Upon closer examination, the overwhelming majority of stories about patriarchs whose ages approach biblical standards are fabrications. The Briton claims that data on extremely old ages is more like statistical garbage. After all, we are talking about people born in the early last century, so there is no reliable way to verify these data. It’s worth mentioning that only 18% of super-centenarians that scientists have “thoroughly verified” possess a birth certificate. And in the USA, immediately after birth certificates were introduced, the number of centenarians magically decreased by 69–82% depending on the state.

DEAD SOULS

Another illustrative example: in 2015, Greece decided to audit its pension system. On paper, at that time, around 9,000 people aged 100 and older were receiving pensions in the country of Homer. However, the auditors could not locate 72 percent of the centenarians from this list. They either died or did not reach the claimed age (document errors). In simpler terms, two-thirds of the record holders "achieved" such a venerable age because their deaths were not reported to social services, and relatives continued to receive their due payments.

And this is far from a unique misunderstanding. Such manipulations are widespread and systematic. Newman has extensively studied the phenomenon of age data distortion in regions known as “Blue Zones.” These areas exhibit an abnormal concentration of centenarians, which has attracted the interest of scientists worldwide. The “Blue Zone” includes 5 territories:

- the island of Sardinia (Italy)

- the island of Ikaria in Greece.

- the Okinawa islands in Japan

- the Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica

- the Seventh-day Adventist community in Loma Linda, California, USA.

The main paradox of the “Blue Zone” regions is that everyone knows the secrets of the longevity of their residents (see 9 PRINCIPLES OF LIFE OF THE INHABITANTS OF BLUE ZONES), yet information about the discrepancies somehow fails to circulate widely. The scale of these discrepancies is staggering. In 2008, it was discovered that 42% of Costa Rican residents aged 99+ had “incorrectly stated” their age during the 2000 census. When corrections were made, the number of centenarians in the Nicoya “Blue Zone” dropped by about 90%.

And in 2010, over 230,000 Japanese centenarians unexpectedly “went missing”: people either died, provided incorrect information about themselves, or there were clerical errors.

But even that is not the most astonishing part. Regions with the highest concentration of centenarians have simultaneously been leaders in unemployment, economic hardship, rising crime rates, and low-quality healthcare. This contradicts everything we know about the socio-economic conditions of longevity.

Moreover, for instance, the province of Olbia-Tempio in Sardinia (part of the “Blue Zone”) is among the 8 provinces where people are least likely to live to 90. Yet paradoxically, it has the highest chances for the elderly to reach 100, 105, and 110 years old.

It has also been found that the lifestyle of Okinawa residents does not align with the longevity principles of the “Blue Zones.” One of the main conditions is a higher intake of vegetables and fruits. But according to Japanese government data, Okinawa actually ranks last in vegetable consumption among all provinces of the Land of the Rising Sun. Additionally, Okinawa residents have the worst body mass index figures in Japan.

- If we sum up all of the above, it creates the impression that centenarian citizens smoke, drink, and violate healthy eating rules - in other words, they do everything that could lead to an early grave. This is a clear indication of age manipulation and pension fraud, - concludes Sol Newman.

9 PRINCIPLES OF LIFE OF THE INHABITANTS OF BLUE ZONES

If the phenomenon of “Blue Zones” is contentious, then there is much less disagreement in the scientific community regarding the healthy lifestyle rules that unite the inhabitants of these regions (and not just them).