Years of magnetic storms are ahead: Scientists have issued a concerning forecast for space weather.

The sun has officially entered the peak phase of its activity cycle. This phase typically lasts about a year. However, this time, the most powerful magnetic storms are expected to occur right after the peak ends, according to Lynker Space, a new international organization established for forecasting space weather. In fact, there will be even more storms, and this will continue for two to three years, confirms Valery Petrov from the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN). Thus, we will experience magnetic storms and auroras until approximately 2028.

SOLAR BATTLES

When the peak of solar activity concludes (estimated around 2026), the sun will enter what is referred to as the "battle zone," reports Lynker Space. This means that magnetic zones, or belts, on the sun will compete with one another, resulting in sunspots, flares, plasma ejections, and other disturbances. Plasma is fighting, and our heads are ringing.

This term is new, coined by Lynker Space, but the phenomenon it describes has been known for a long time.

We tend to think that the solar activity cycle lasts about 11 years. This is true, yet not entirely so. Astronomers generally refer to a period of 22 years, meaning two cycles at once. It takes this long for the sun's magnetic field to return to its original state, and then everything starts anew. The magnetic field of our star is what triggers flares, which in turn disturb Earth’s magnetic field, causing headaches.

The fact that sunspots are areas of powerful magnetic anomalies was discovered in 1909 by astronomer George Hale. How did he manage this? The light in a magnetic field is distorted. This is clearly visible in a spectroscope, an instrument that creates an "artificial rainbow." At the beginning of the 20th century, good spectroscopes had just emerged; they were mounted on large telescopes and pointed in all directions. The magnetic anomalies in the spots were so strong that they could not be overlooked.

Hale found that the magnetic polarity of spots in one hemisphere is opposite to that in the other. Roughly speaking, the sun's hemispheres are "magnetically charged" differently. Typically, the spots align on the sun in long bands (Hale's bands). It looks as if a gigantic horseshoe magnet was dipped into the sun's interior, with one leg pointing toward the northern hemisphere and the other toward the southern.

As the peak of activity nears its end, the bands with spots (Hale's bands) slowly descend toward the equator and begin to compete with each other. The outcome of this battle is predetermined. The polarity of the hemispheres switches places. However, while the battle rages, flares, magnetic storms, and other disturbances only intensify.

This effect is what Lynker Space has dubbed the "battle zone," and it is what awaits us starting in 2026.

The fighting is not observed after every peak, not every 11 years, but rather every 22 years. So, we have "luckily" drawn the short straw.

Sunspots are areas of powerful magnetic anomalies

Photo: EAST NEWS.

COSMIC DANGER

According to Scott McIntosh, head of the company, the intensity of solar activity in the "battle zone" increases by about twofold. "The likelihood of dangerous magnetic storms is very high," says the scientist. This state, according to him, will last until 2028.

- Statistics show that the peak of magnetic activity indeed occurs after the peak of solar activity and lasts for two to three years, - confirms Valery Petrov, a PhD and researcher at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation. - Magnetic activity is observed at the beginning of the declining phase of solar activity.

This dangerous situation worries McIntosh for two reasons. First, despite the peak activity being behind us, the sun continues to produce a massive number of flares and ejections, all of which are falling on an already battered Earth. Secondly, it is during this time that coronal holes form more frequently. Essentially, these are "holes" in the sun's atmosphere from which plasma freely gushes into space. Holes are fraught with fast and sharp bursts of solar wind, says McIntosh. At one point, a hole created such a plasma storm that even Mars was affected.

There is no data suggesting that magnetic storms become particularly fierce after the peak, which is somewhat reassuring, says Valery Petrov.

- The impact of a storm on Earth depends on how the plasma reaches Earth and whether it reaches it at all. But the fact that there will be more storms is true. And yes, there will generally be more strong storms, - he states.

MAGNETIC BLINDNESS

Despite the fact that Hale's old discovery has made it into all textbooks and astronomers actively study the sun's magnetic field, the bands of spots, or Hale's bands, are hardly used for forecasting space weather. While theoretical understanding exists, in practice, astronomers rely solely on the simple count of visible spots. This is a good, yet incomplete, indicator.

McIntosh and his colleagues made headlines in 2019 when there were no spots on the sun at all. Some then thought that the sun had cooled down inside, would cool down outside, and that a new cycle of activity would not start at all. By analyzing the magnetic fields, McIntosh and his colleagues accurately predicted the start of the new cycle, something no one else managed to do. Building on this success, they created Lynker Space and now forecast space weather based on magnetic fields.

Since Lynker Space's primary client is NASA and other space agencies, McIntosh is particularly concerned about the fate of artificial satellites. In his view, most of them will perish. The fact is, over the past 22 years, the number of satellites has increased dramatically. There will be communication disruptions, satellite television will decline, navigation will falter, and much more, he believes.

Satellites are indeed at risk, but this problem has been known for a long time; the space age has been around for years, and we have experienced this before, disagrees Valery Petrov.

- Of course, when the number of charged particles in Earth’s radiation belts increases, the likelihood that they will damage electronics also rises. But this is an old problem; we have learned to combat it. Radiation-hardened microchips are used, and sensitive components are shielded. I think the probability of satellite failure exists, but it’s not that high, - he explains.

One must not overlook that this young company aims to secure budgets, and thus may be exaggerating the problem.

ARE YOU GETTING HEADACHES?

All of this is bad news if you consider yourself dependent on space weather. Whether such a dependency truly exists or if we are just imagining it is something that medical professionals cannot definitively conclude.

Some studies show no connection between magnetic storms and health conditions. Others suggest that there is an influence, but it is not linear. For instance, storms are almost unnoticeable in the summer because there is plenty of sunshine, fruits, and vegetables, and many people are on vacation, all of which boosts the immune system. Conversely, in winter, storms should be approached with caution. However, we must reiterate that all of this remains unproven.

Psychosomatics is when you read that a storm is coming and you brace yourself against the wall – that certainly exists. If you don’t follow solar weather reports, you will feel better. Moreover, these reports are worth little; we still cannot accurately predict storms.

At the same time, we must remember that our compatriot Alexander Chizhevsky demonstrated, using a vast statistical dataset, that solar activity affects not only health but everything in general. In his foundational work from the 1920s, there are graphs showing that during magnetic storms, not only the incidence of cardiovascular diseases increases but also the number of crimes, natural disasters, or pandemics.

The reason for such a connection remained unclear. Chizhevsky enjoyed considerable authority in the USSR. In the later years of his life, during the 1960s, he began to develop theoretical mechanisms to explain the observed patterns. He was convinced that the sun emits some radiation unknown to science. However, he was unable to prove all this. Scientists are generally skeptical of