Could the methane leak from the Nord Stream explosions have triggered an unusually warm winter?

The winter of 2025 is breaking one temperature record after another. What is the reason for this unusually warm winter? Climatologist Nikolai Tereshonok from the Federal State Budgetary Institution "Central Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring" has made a sensational statement. In his opinion, the tropical winter in Europe was caused by gas leaks that occurred in 2022 as a result of the sabotage of the "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2" pipelines.

- I assert that the situation with the "Nord Streams" played a significant role in establishing the abnormally warm weather in January, - stated Nikolai Tereshonok to the agency “Moscow”. - The greenhouse effect from methane that entered the atmosphere due to the accident is tens, if not hundreds, of times stronger than that of carbon dioxide. This effect does not manifest immediately, but two years have passed - that is enough for us to feel the consequences this winter.

Is this really the case?

The consequences of the sabotage on the "Nord Stream" pipelines were studied by a team of scientists from universities in Sweden and Germany. The research results were published on January 15, 2025, in the prestigious scientific journal Nature.

The explosions on the pipelines laid on the seabed of the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany were recorded on September 26, 2022. At that moment, the pipelines were not being used for transportation, but a large amount of natural gas was under pressure inside them. When instruments detected a pressure drop, patrol planes were dispatched, which observed a massive gas bubble on the surface above the leak sites, measuring over 1 kilometer in diameter. Surface bubbling was observed for 7 days and ceased only on October 2, 2022. Some of the released gas immediately entered the atmosphere, while some dissolved in seawater. Scientists analyzed data collected by instruments installed on a glider, a research vessel, and an underwater robot that descended to the leak zone at a depth of 70 meters. Calculations showed that a total of 443-486 thousand tons of methane were released from the "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2" pipelines. This figure is three times higher than the previous estimate mentioned in a report prepared by scientists earlier at the request of the pipeline operator, Nord Stream AG.

- This is the largest anthropogenic methane release in history, - explains the lead author of the study, Martin Mormann, a professor at the Department of Marine Sciences at the University of Gothenburg. - The initial concentrations of methane in the water were so high that the 5-fold increase over natural levels is still - nearly three years later (!) - present over 14% of the Baltic Sea area.

Immediately after the explosion, methane concentrations at the epicenter of the accident were thousands of times higher. Fortunately, environmental monitoring results revealed only minor impacts on the marine environment and ecosystem health.

But how could this leak affect the climate, considering that atmospheric methane is considered a major factor in global warming?

Scientists reassured that although the accident on the "Nord Stream" is the largest single methane release, the total volume accounts for only 0.1% of all anthropogenic methane emissions in 2022. In other words, the accident could not have significantly affected the climate or triggered the current tropical winter in Europe.

Here are some factors that scientists believe may have played a role

1. Global warming

The rate of climate change in the latitudes where our country is located is higher than the global average. According to Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center, the average temperature in the central part of Russia is rising at a rate of 0.4 - 0.45 degrees per decade. In contrast, the global average temperature increase is 1 degree over 100 years.

According to Vladimir Semenov, deputy director of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow has warmed by 3.5–4 degrees over the past 40 years. Currently, the climatic indicators in the Russian capital correspond to the weather conditions in the Belgorod region 30-40 years ago. If the average temperature continues to rise at the same pace, in 50 years, the climate in Moscow will match the current weather in Voronezh.

2. Warmth brought by cyclones from the Atlantic

The weather was also influenced by specific atmospheric conditions. A series of warm Atlantic cyclones has arrived in Russia.

- The reason for the unusually "hot" January was the almost continuous influx of maritime air mass from the Atlantic into the Moscow region throughout the month, - explains Mikhail Leus, a leading specialist at the Phobos weather center. - And in the last week, even warmer tropical maritime air from the Mediterranean region made its way in.

The cyclones not only warmed the capital region but also Siberia and even Yakutia.

- In January, the air temperature, thanks to the cyclones, exceeded the norm in Yakutia by more than 20 degrees! - reports Tatiana Pozdnyakova, chief specialist at the Moscow meteorological bureau. - In Yakutsk - the capital of the coldest region in Russia - another temperature record was set on January 24: the maximum air temperature reached -6.8 degrees. The previous record was set in 2012 at -13.1 degrees.

In February, according to forecasts, the weather is not expected to change drastically. No frosty invasions are anticipated. This means that this winter has every chance of becoming one of the warmest on record.