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If winter is mild, expect a cold summer? Does this popular folk saying hold any truth?

Meteorologist Leus: There will be no record warm winter in 2025.
Теплая зима предвещает холодное лето? Узнайте, насколько верна эта народная примета!

A warm winter does not promise us a warm, cold, or any other kind of summer.

Photo: Svetlana MAKOVEEVA. Go to the KP Photo Bank

There is a belief that the seasons are interconnected. And following a warm winter, a cold summer will come. It is said that nature will eventually balance itself out.

- This correlation does not exist in the science of meteorology. A warm winter does not guarantee us a warm, cold, or any other type of summer. These are not interconnected seasons, - says leading specialist at the “FOBOS” weather center Mikhail Leus.

- What about the law of conservation of matter? As Lomonosov said, if something is lost somewhere, then something must be gained elsewhere.

- This is a physical principle that does not apply to weather. If we take a 50-year observation period, then in full accordance with this law, our winter will be cold on average, and summer will be warm on average. But we are not interested in such a scale; we care about the weather in a very limited time frame. Other factors come into play here.

- Does this winter have a chance to go down in history as the warmest ever recorded?

- It is still too early to say, as we have a whole month of winter ahead of us. So far, we do not have any record warm months.

- What about January?

- If we are talking about Moscow, January 2025 tied for first place among the warmest with January 2020. However, my personal opinion is that there will not be a record warm winter this year. As for long-term forecasts for summer, the accuracy of any forecast lasting a month or more at the current level of meteorological development is 60−65%. Therefore, it is not serious to discuss summer forecasts at this time.