What are the dangers of Kazakhstan's historical failure at the Winter Asian Games in Harbin?

The correspondent from Caravan.kz explains why this result was expected and what hindered the acquisition of more medals.

Following the 2025 Asian Winter Games, Kazakhstan ranked 4th in the overall team standings, achieving the minimum goal. Among the 20 medals won, there were 4 gold, 9 silver, and 7 bronze. In which sports were the medals earned? These include short track (1 gold and 2 silver), freestyle acrobatics (1 gold, 1 silver, and 2 bronze), biathlon (1 gold, 2 silver, and 1 bronze), hockey (1 gold and 1 silver), figure skating (1 bronze), and cross-country skiing (2 silver and 2 bronze). Some media outlets described this result as "failure" and "the worst in history," however, in reality, it is an expected and quite reasonable result given the current situation.

The author of these lines, even before the start of the Winter Asian Games, responded positively to the question of whether Kazakhstanis could win medals in Harbin-2025, but with a caveat: the number would be less than in the previous Games in 2017 and significantly fewer than at the home Asian Games in 2011.

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, cross-country skiing in Kazakhstan is going through tough times, and the situation in alpine skiing is even more challenging, as a couple of years ago, the national team was entirely disbanded. Biathlon, judging by the results, is evolving positively, but stability in results, especially in the women's team, has yet to be achieved.

Secondly, Kazakhstan's results were directly influenced by the sports and disciplines that the organizers of the 2025 Asian Games, together with the Olympic Council of Asia, included in the program. It is no secret that the host country of these complex competitions will insist on including those sports that are most developed there; moreover, in order to secure a better medal tally, they might request the exclusion of events where local athletes are unlikely to achieve significant results, to avoid disappointing local fans. This is why, for instance, freestyle mogul skiing, where Kazakhstanis, Japanese, and South Koreans are strong, but not the Chinese, was not part of the 2025 Asian Games program. In biathlon, the Chinese organizers proposed to award medals at the Asian Games not across all Olympic distances but on less than half of them (4 sets of medals instead of the Olympic 10), selecting those where Chinese biathletes had the greatest chances of winning. Similarly, in cross-country skiing, the focus was placed on shorter distances (6 sets of medals instead of 12), where China is currently showing outstanding results, while longer distances were excluded. Ironically, it is precisely in the disciplines not included in the 2025 Asian Games program that Kazakhstan could have secured the missing medals, which, by the most conservative estimates, amounts to around 10 medals. A couple more medals could also have been won in ski jumping, but this Olympic sport was not included in the program of the White Asian Games-2025.

On the other hand, justifying the current results solely based on the peculiarities of the competition program would also be somewhat inaccurate. For example, in cross-country skiing during the times of legendary skier and Olympic champion Vladimir Smirnov, and even later when the team featured athletes of Nikolai Chebotko's caliber, Kazakhstan often did not allow opponents to get close to gold medals at the Asian Games. This time the situation has changed — both the opponents have become stronger, and the results of Kazakhstani skiers are not as outstanding. Nevertheless, leading up to the current Asian Games, Kazakhstani skiers approached with hopes for a bright future — in the summer of 2024, Vladimir Smirnov agreed to help his native sport regain its former positions not only in Asia but also in the world on a voluntary basis. As we learned, in a short time, work with the technical sector has been established, a coaching staff has been approved for the long term, and intensive training sessions in the mountains have taken place, without which Kazakhstani skiers would not have shown even the current results in Harbin-2025. However, noticeable changes as a result of implementing the plan proposed by the Olympic champion will only be visible in a few years — it is simply impossible to turn the situation around in just six months. Moreover, for new talents to appear in the cross-country skiing team, enhancing competition, mass winter sports development in Kazakhstan is necessary (fortunately, the weather conditions allow for this), and this task has already been entrusted not to the Federation of Cross-Country Skiing, but to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports at the national level and the sports departments at the regional level.

Regardless, the current outcomes from Harbin-2025, in quantitative terms, merely replicate the results of Aomori-2003 and Changchun-2007 in the total number of medals won. Furthermore, the 7 and 6 gold medals won at those Asian Games respectively did not help Kazakhstan break into the top three in Asia (it also finished 4th in the overall standings). Among the most positive aspects of Kazakhstan's performance in Harbin-2025, the victories of Kazakhstani athletes in short track deserve special attention, where the strongest participants gathered — China and South Korea brought their top athletes, resulting in 9 Olympic medalists competing in Harbin-2025.

In freestyle acrobatics, Kazakhstan made a significant impact in synchronized jumps, winning a historic gold medal by defeating the renowned Chinese freestyle athletes — Olympic champions — on their home turf. Special applause is warranted for figure skater Mikhail Shaidorov — the Almaty native performed with a fever, presented a adjusted program, and managed to secure a bronze medal. Ranking 7th in the world, he was able to surpass, for instance, the 4th-ranked Japanese skater Shun Sato at the Asian Games.

In less than a year, the Winter Olympic Games will kick off in Milan, Italy. It is unlikely that Kazakhstan will win 20 medals there. However, the results of the current winter season, including the 2025 Asian Games, Cups, and World Championships, provide hope that in 2026 Kazakhstan will welcome not just one, but perhaps several Olympic medalists. And before this happens, and afterward — it is crucial that the attention to winter sports from responsible government bodies does not wane over the next four, seven, or ten years, but rather that focus is placed on developing both those sports where high results are shown and those disciplines where significant work is needed to regain former positions.