The consumer confidence index in Kazakhstan rose for the second consecutive month in October, reaching 104.5 points, marking the highest level in 2024. This improvement in respondents' sentiments was noted across four out of five sub-indices. The most significant increase was observed in forecasts regarding personal financial situations over the next year. Compared to October of the previous year, the CCI increased by 1.2 points, largely due to a substantial improvement in evaluations of the economic situation, as indicated by the research from Freedom Finance Global.
The sub-index for personal financial situation forecasts over the next 12 months rose by 3.4 points, reaching 132.5 points, which is the best result in 2024. The proportion of those who believe their financial situation will improve rose from 48.1% in September to 50% in October.
Regionally, the most significant positive shift in forecasts for personal financial situations was observed in the Akmolinsk and West Kazakhstan regions, where the share of positive responses increased by 13.7 and 13.5 percentage points, respectively. Nevertheless, the Kyzylorda region remains the leader, with 61.6% of respondents predicting an improvement in their financial situation over the next 12 months. The Ulytau region reported the worst responses, where this figure fell from 46% to 23.3%.
Compared to September, the sub-index for evaluations of changes in the economy also showed a notable improvement, increasing exactly by 3 points to 82.6 points. This result is the highest since November 2023. The proportion of Kazakhs who believe there have been favorable changes in the economy rose from 17.4% to 18.7%. Conversely, there was a more significant decline in negative responses, dropping from 42.4% to 39.6%.
Regionally, the greatest progress was made in the Zhambyl region, where the share of positive responses increased from 15.5% to 28.1%. This result was also the best among all regions in October. A significant monthly increase was also recorded in the Almaty and West Kazakhstan regions, where this indicator rose by 7.1 percentage points. On the other hand, respondents from the Ulytau region reported the poorest results, with the share of positive responses falling from 13.8% to 9.3%.
Inflation expectations among residents of Kazakhstan in October decreased again after a noticeable rise in September. Over the past month, 37.5% of respondents (compared to 39.7% in September) reported a strong increase in prices. Over the year, there was an even more significant drop in the share of those noticing rapid price increases, from 50.8% in September to 47.5% at the time of the last data collection. Notably, both indicators reached record lows since the start of the research.
In contrast, inflation expectations among Kazakhs showed an increase compared to September, reaching the highest values of the year. The proportion of people expecting a strong rise in prices over the next month rose from 19.9% to 21.9%, while the share anticipating accelerated price growth over the next 12 months increased from 24.9% in September to 25.4% at the time of the latest survey.
Among individual goods and services, the majority of respondents are still concerned about significant price increases for food products. The list of the top four most noticeably increased prices for consumers has remained unchanged over the past year. It includes categories such as "Meat and Poultry," "Milk and Dairy Products," "Bread and Bakery Products," and "Vegetables and Fruits."
Devaluation expectations among Kazakhs significantly increased in October, reaching new record levels amid the rise of the dollar to 496 tenge at one point. According to the survey results, the share of Kazakhs expecting a weakening of the tenge over the next year rose from 57.5% to 59.3%. For the one-month outlook, the increase was from 35.2% to 40.5%. It is worth noting that compared to October 2023, the share of pessimists rose by 5.4 percentage points on the first question and by 6.1 percentage points on the second.
The dynamics of inflation assessments and expectations in October were positive across the region following the negative trends of August and September. Only in Kazakhstan was the inflation sentiment dynamic mixed. Inflation expectations continued to rise, while inflation assessments significantly decreased, also reaching record lows. In Kyrgyzstan, inflation assessments also significantly dropped after the sharp rise in September. Therefore, one can only speak of normalization of indicators here, rather than record lows. Tajikistan is experiencing a similar dynamic in inflation assessments. However, the indicated changes are still significantly above summer values, as the growth in this country was the highest in August-September. In Uzbekistan, inflation assessments and expectations also fell, but not as dramatically. There, assessments are still much worse than they were in July. Nevertheless, a new minimum was reached in terms of inflation expectations.
Devaluation expectations in Central Asian countries as a whole showed an increase. Almost all countries are experiencing a weakening of their national currencies, except for Tajikistan. It is noteworthy that devaluation expectations in Kazakhstan continued to rise after a pause in September, with indicators reaching new absolute records for the entire duration of the research. In Uzbekistan, devaluation expectations also increased, but at a much slower pace. This occurred against the backdrop of a gradual weakening of the som for the third consecutive month. In Kyrgyzstan, there was a noticeable increase in devaluation expectations for the first time since March after a slight weakening of the som. Although the share expecting a continuation of this trend remained within the average values of the previous six months. Only in Tajikistan was the dynamic largely neutral, although slightly more people now expect a weakening of the somoni in a month. On the other hand, the share of pessimists regarding the exchange rate over the next year decreased.
“October 2024 was ambiguous for Central Asian countries. In Kazakhstan, the consumer confidence index has risen for the second month in a row. However, this time the increase was much more noticeable, reaching the highest value in 2024. Improvements in forecasts and evaluations regarding personal financial situations were also noted. Furthermore, assessments of favorable conditions for major purchases have also improved,” says analyst Daniyar Orazbaev from Freedom Finance Global.
In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires monthly, in Kyrgyzstan – 1,600, in Tajikistan – 1,200, proportional to the population size in the studied countries. The research is based on the methodology used to obtain consumer confidence indices in many countries worldwide, adapted to local needs by United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire is adapted: the research is conducted in the native language of the respondents.