When will the geomagnetic storm occur? Solar activity is currently at its peak.

Media reports indicated that on Tuesday, February 4, the planet would be hit by a geomagnetic storm. Unfortunately, the most reliable websites where one can check the state of space weather were either down or malfunctioning, which seemed alarming. Should we just wait in fear? We decided to take proactive measures against the impending storm.

SO, WHAT ABOUT THE STORM?

- On Tuesday, February 4, we do not expect a geomagnetic storm, - said Maria Abunina, a senior researcher at the Space Weather Forecast Center of IZMIRAN, to KP.RU.

There have indeed been constant flares on the Sun these days, she added. But they are almost never accompanied by material ejections, which are what create the phenomenon of a magnetic storm.

- If a suitable event occurs on the Sun, say, on Tuesday or Wednesday, we would then add another 2-4 days from that time, and then we might get a chance of a magnetic storm, - says Maria Abunina.

- So, by the end of the week?

- If an event (flare with ejection – KP) occurs.

WHEN WILL IT HIT?

It is unclear where the information about the geomagnetic storm on Tuesday originated, says Maria Abunina. Moreover, some magnetic observatory websites were down, adding to the mystery – we would like to add.

In reality, astronomers did not rule out any events, but nothing was actually planned for Tuesday. The same goes for Wednesday, February 5.

The Sun had been relatively quiet for some time, but it became active over the weekend.

Photo: Shutterstock.

The Sun had been relatively quiet for some time, but it erupted over the weekend, reported the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI RAN. This "eruption" took on a global character: it was active on both the side of the Sun visible to us and the far side, which we can observe thanks to satellites.

A series of M-class flares (medium) occurred, with some barely missing the X-class (extreme). For instance, six of these flares were recorded just on Monday.

The most active region was directly facing the Earth by Monday evening. This means that if something serious happens there on Tuesday or Wednesday, all of it will head straight towards us.

- We can only keep our fingers crossed that there won't be a significant X flare with an ejection in the next couple of days. The mathematical probabilities of such a scenario, unfortunately, are quite high, - the laboratory's message stated.

For now, as we can see, nothing has happened. But even if it does, the storm will likely come closer to the weekend.

- After all, it takes time for the material to reach us, - says Maria Abunina.

GETTING USED TO STORMS

The Sun is at its peak activity. Typically, the active phase lasts for a year. However, powerful magnetic storms and auroras can continue for several more years. They tend to become even stronger after the maximum has passed, as Valery Petrov, head of the variable magnetic field department at IZMIRAN, once explained to Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Typically, the active phase lasts for a year. However, powerful magnetic storms and auroras can continue for several more years.

Photo: Shutterstock.

Thus, we need to somehow come to terms with the fact that there will be many storms and learn to live with them. Some medical professionals believe that the effects of magnetic storms on the body are practically nonexistent and are more likely due to psychosomatic factors. Others say that there is some impact, but it is exaggerated. They urge people to visit their doctors on time, strictly take their prescribed medications, and most importantly, to distract themselves. Statistics show that there are almost no complaints about "magnetic storms" in the summer when elderly individuals are relaxing at their summer cottages, but there are many in winter when our seniors are cooped up in their apartments.

WILL THERE BE A MEGA STORM?

Scientists are concerned about a mega flare that could disrupt electronics. Indeed, powerful flares in 2024 have damaged satellites, communication devices, and even "smart" combines, which stopped right in the middle of fields. However, scientists still do not understand whether such a mega flare will occur or not.

The current solar activity cycle is stronger than the previous one, but not abnormally strong, recently reported Oleg Uglinov, a senior researcher at IKI RAN, to Komsomolskaya Pravda. Meanwhile, there are publications suggesting that such a mega flare is likely. There is also no consensus on what its actual consequences would be. Alongside apocalyptic forecasts like "we will be thrown back to a pre-industrial era," there are opinions that Earth's infrastructure is well protected and that after brief disruptions, everything will recover.

Making predictions is indeed challenging: we need to experience it ourselves. Although, of course, we shouldn't.