Demographic challenges in Kazakhstan's economy: the increasing number of lonely elderly individuals poses risks of hunger-related deaths.

In a situation where authorities are only concerned with addressing immediate needs without looking far ahead and lacking effective long-term plans based on research into the internal issues of the population, including demographic indicators, the future of the younger generation becomes uncertain.

Ayaulym Sagynbaeva, a national demographic expert, elaborated in an interview with inbusiness.kz on how low and high birth rates affect the economic prospects of countries and what accompanying problems and challenges Kazakhstan faces.

- Ayaulym Zarlykhanovna, how does the decline in birth rates impact the long-term economic prospects of developed countries? Is the world anticipating a major crisis due to the rapid population decline in wealthy nations, alongside demographic growth concentrated in Africa?

- While this may not be immediately apparent, the consequences of declining birth rates will begin to be felt in about 15-20 years, especially if immigration levels remain low. This is particularly relevant for countries like Kazakhstan. As a result, we may face a shortage or reduction in the working-age population.

Given the current demographic structure, a decline in birth rates is the first step toward an increase in the proportion of elderly people in the future. In the long term, this will create serious issues related to the increasing demographic and economic burden on society due to an aging population. However, high birth rates can also become a source of pressure on the working-age population.

If we consider children and the elderly as dependents, their numbers negatively impact the working-age population, as it requires support for two groups of dependent individuals.

- Can countries with high levels of immigration offset birth rate issues with migrants?

- In developed countries, population decline is compensated by immigration, including migrants from Africa. For instance, in Europe, the majority of women giving birth are migrants, just as in Russia, where the highest number of births comes from the peoples of the Caucasus.

- What global systemic challenge does this pose to the pension systems of developed countries? What possible solution do you consider most likely in the current situation?

- Population aging affects all sectors of the economy, but the most significant burden falls on the healthcare and social security systems. As the proportion of elderly people increases, so does the incidence and mortality from cardiovascular diseases such as heart attacks and strokes. At the same time, among the elderly in countries with high aging rates, there is a lower mortality rate from external causes, such as traffic accidents, which depends on living conditions.

Countries with high aging populations are adapting their infrastructure to meet the needs of the elderly—from transportation to public catering. It is also important to consider the difference in life expectancy between men and women: in Kazakhstan, it is 8 years, leading to an increase in the number of lonely elderly individuals. When financial resources are lacking, the risk of starvation increases.

In Europe, particularly given the high prices for utilities, there has been an increase in mortality from hypothermia and hunger among vulnerable segments of the elderly population. Therefore, a crucial aspect of aging is financial security, the formation of active longevity, and the organization of leisure for the elderly.

It is also necessary to account for the level of pension payments in various countries. In our pension system, there is still a basic solidarity pension, but for the generation born after 1985, it will be replaced by a funded system. What kind of decent accumulation can be discussed if real incomes continue to decline?

Comparing the elderly in Kazakhstan and Europe is not entirely accurate, as their activity levels differ. In Europe, the retirement age is not seen as the end of work activity but rather as an opportunity to receive additional benefits, such as tax breaks.

With age, consumption patterns change. There is an increased demand for medications and products for the elderly, such as adult diapers, while the consumption of alcohol and meat products decreases.

- How does the decline in birth rates affect the demand for housing, especially in megacities?

- It all depends on the population structure. A decline in birth rates and a decrease in average family size in developed countries leads to a reduction in the proportion of the population needing larger apartments. Demand for housing, however, does not disappear entirely; it simply changes in characteristics.

Demand for housing in megacities is unlikely to decrease due to high levels of migration. However, it will depend on the type of apartments and the economic capabilities of the population. Long-term investment prospects are also important, especially in the context of birth rates. A birth rate above 2.1 is considered optimal as it helps to compensate for population losses due to migration.

- What long-term investment opportunities may arise in countries with high birth rates, including Kazakhstan?

- Investment opportunities will be high, as the age structure of the population supports the development of the workforce and economic sectors that require employees. However, a high birth rate can pose challenges for demographic security if basic needs for education, healthcare, and other social services are not met.

It is important to understand that while demographers and economists strive for an optimal population, achieving this in practice is challenging. For example, Kazakhstan, with its young population, faces issues related to population growth that negatively affect the infrastructure of social services in megacities. Demographic factors are often overlooked in state planning.

When analyzing strategic urban development plans, it becomes evident that population numbers are mentioned nominally, without considering the needs in healthcare, public transport, and other areas. An increase in population leads to more household waste, but is not accompanied by necessary measures to improve infrastructure for waste disposal.

Furthermore, the increase in public transport and healthcare and education personnel is insufficient. Initiatives like "100 schools-100 hospitals" do not take into account regional characteristics of population growth and birth rates. It is crucial that as the population increases, appropriate social services are provided.

- Can Kazakhstan expect a positive demographic dividend considering its young population? How does population growth in Kazakhstan affect infrastructure and social services development?

- A positive demographic dividend is possible only if the government provides the youth with quality education and employment. The window for demographic dividend typically opens when the economic burden on the population decreases, and people pay taxes.

A demographic dividend arises when the proportion of the working-age population significantly exceeds the share of dependents, such as children and the elderly. This occurs against a backdrop of declining birth rates when the number of dependent categories decreases. Kazakhstan experienced such a window of opportunity in the late 1990s to early 2000s, when birth rates were at record lows, and the working-age population was high.

However, at that time, the country was unable to fully capitalize on this demographic advantage. Today, the young working-age population, which once constituted a significant portion, is approaching the age of 50 and will soon become elderly. It is noteworthy that in developed countries experiencing population aging, the concept of a second demographic dividend is being discussed. This relates to the active involvement of elderly individuals in the workforce.

- What challenges does high birth rate create for Kazakhstan in terms of job creation, infrastructure, housing, education, and pension system development?

- Despite a high proportion of the working-age population, Kazakhstan is witnessing a decline in this share and an increase in aging rates. This presents challenges for the government in planning and managing demographic processes. Program documents such as the "National Development Plan until 2029" do not adequately address demographic aspects beyond life expectancy.

Population growth affects consumption increases and business development, especially in major cities such as Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent. However, high birth rates create additional challenges for job creation and adapting the pension system to new conditions.

As I have mentioned, high birth rates today mean the formation of tomorrow's workforce, and in the future, an increase in the number of elderly individuals. Kazakhstan exhibits a significant level of ageism, especially towards women, which creates difficulties for women of pre-retirement and retirement age who fear job loss.

It is important to note that a high proportion of children is also associated with demographic and economic risks if they do not receive adequate support in healthcare, education, and social services. If children grow up in unfavorable conditions, lacking necessary nutrition and housing, their chances for a successful future diminish.

Thus, high birth rates today lead to a large youth population in the future. However, if this youth is uneducated and unemployed, it poses risks to society, as disillusioned young people may become sources of social problems.

A youth bulge typically leads to social and economic crises, as well as revolutions. Therefore, we should not only celebrate high birth rates but also ensure that children receive quality education and decent living conditions so that they can contribute to society in the future. If the youth are not provided with the necessary conditions, discussing future development, including pension and economic systems, will be impossible.

Programs for active longevity and child support need to be developed as part of a lifestyle rather than a formal initiative. Success is only possible with a comprehensive approach where demographics, economics, social issues, ideology, and education are interconnected and develop simultaneously.

Ideological work and the development of social infrastructure must go hand in hand with the training of specialists