The stagnation of the oil sector has highlighted the vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan's economy.

Several factors significantly impacted the economy of Kazakhstan in 2024, including a slight shortfall in tax revenues, substantial withdrawals from the National Fund, the persistence of an inefficient budget structure, and stagnation in oil production, as reported by inbusiness.kz.

The key factors that had the most considerable influence on the country's economy were global oil prices and the prices of other raw materials. Kazakhstan, being heavily dependent on the export of these goods, feels the impact of price fluctuations on budget revenues. Geopolitical events, including global conflicts, sanctions, and trade policies, also played a significant role, negatively affecting the economic situation.

Economic growth rates in 2024 decreased significantly compared to the record levels of the previous year. According to the latest data, growth was at 4%. The three main sectors that have the most significant impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and economic growth are the mining sector (including oil), the manufacturing sector, and trade.

The primary reason for the slowdown in economic growth this year was the decline in oil production rates in the mining sector, which increased by just over 1%. Meanwhile, trade showed substantial growth. According to operational data for the first 11 months, trade grew by more than 8%, with the trade share in GDP reaching 16%.

A study conducted by Halyk Finance indicates that the growth of trade appears anomalous, as there are no strong prerequisites for sustainable increases. Trade in the country is characterized by high volatility, showing both robust growth and sharp declines over the past two years.

Overall, the economy of Kazakhstan has not undergone structural changes and continues to be dependent on the oil sector. The dynamics of this sector continue to determine the development of the economy across various industries and key macroeconomic indicators such as the exchange rate and inflation. By the end of the year, the exchange rate also raised concerns due to significant fluctuations.

The volatility of the tenge exchange rate in 2024 was linked to both internal and external factors. Among the internal reasons were the slowdown in the oil sector, a decrease in tax revenues, and the necessity to increase transfers from the National Fund. The dynamics of transfers in the first half of the year ensured a flow of dollars into the economy, which contributed to the strengthening of the tenge.

However, after the cessation of transfers, the tenge weakened significantly. External negative factors also played a role: the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the ruble, and the drop in the tenge exchange rate exerted additional pressure on the country's economy.