The development of global nuclear energy: What contribution can Kazakhstan make?

The issue of building a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan has been discussed for the past 20 years. However, despite fears surrounding nuclear energy due to associations with the Semipalatinsk nuclear tests and potential risks of negative events from operating a nuclear station, the referendum held in October this year clarified the situation. It's essential to understand that for a country that produced over 60% of its electricity from coal and about 30% from gas last year, achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 through other means will be challenging, reports inbusiness.kz.

Relying solely on renewable energy sources (RES) is not a reliable solution, so the construction of a nuclear power plant will be crucial, considering the growing population, ambitious economic development plans, and ensuring energy security for the future. Furthermore, the gradual reduction of coal industry share can be seen as a necessary need related to the interests not only of Kazakhstan but also of the world as a whole.

How It All Started

Just a year ago, at the COP28 World Climate Conference in 2023, 25 major countries adopted a declaration officially proclaiming a "renaissance" of nuclear electricity generation, without which achieving the goals of carbon neutrality for the global economy is unlikely, especially in light of the growing energy deficit. According to the agreements, a joint proposal was made to triple the global nuclear power capacity from the current 390 GW to 1,200 GW by 2050.

Considering that the nuclear power plant construction project involves high capital investments and long payback periods, 14 financial institutions and representatives from major US IT companies, who also urgently need uninterrupted power sources for their data centers, expressed interest in financing the development of the global nuclear sector. As a result of international support, another six countries, including Kazakhstan, joined the declaration at COP29 in Baku just a year later.

Potential for Kazakhstan

Unlike a number of countries (including European ones) interested in developing the nuclear sector, Kazakhstan plays a significant role in the uranium market (about 14% of the world's explored reserves and 42% of production), which serves as raw material for nuclear generation, potentially providing a competitive advantage. It is also worth noting that resource exploration in the country continues; for example, this year, new reserves were discovered at the "Vostochniy" site of the Zhalpak deposit in the Turkestan region. Preliminary estimates suggest that the projected resource potential reaches 30,000 tons (about 4% of the current explored volumes in all of Kazakhstan).

Despite the fact that the uranium extracted in the country is not enriched and is mainly exported to China, France, Russia, Canada, and other countries, Kazakhstan has already begun discussions with foreign partners about the possibilities of enriching uranium on its territory to supply future capacities.

By the mid-2030s, it is preliminarily planned to build two reactors of approximately 1.2 GW each in southeastern Kazakhstan. The construction of a nuclear power plant will not only help prevent electricity shortages in the southern regions and reduce dependence on imports but also contribute to job creation and infrastructure improvement in the area. Based on global practices, building such a nuclear power plant with two reactors could provide jobs for an average of up to 8,000 people, and around 2,000 during the operational phase. Additionally, the future nuclear power plant will play a key role in helping the Republic achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

As of today, a supplier of water-water reactors (about 70% of successful projects use such technologies) has not yet been chosen, but next year, under the supervision of the IAEA, a vendor from France, Russia, China, or South Korea is expected to be determined. The choice of contractor for construction will be based on economic viability, technological reliability, and environmental safety.

Moreover, Kazakhstan is exploring the prospects of small modular reactors (SMRs), which are gaining popularity worldwide, although commercial projects are currently only being implemented by Russia and China.

Safety Above All

Given the justified concerns of Kazakhs regarding the nuclear sector, it is important to note that Kazakhstan has long been preparing its qualified personnel, trained in Russia, Japan, and France, and is actively studying global experiences in developing nuclear energy, constructing, and operating nuclear power plants, while considering the region's increased seismic activity. For additional protection, modern automatic safety systems will be implemented, which perform their functions in the event of any mechanical, chemical, or natural damage related to emergency situations.

Particular attention will be paid to minimizing risks associated with human errors, including both operator mistakes and those of operational personnel, as well as preventing equipment failures. It should be emphasized that modern technologies in the field of nuclear energy have been developed and designed based on accumulated experience and lessons learned from past incidents, significantly enhancing safety and reliability.

Viktor Kovalenko – partner at EY, head of climate change and sustainable development services in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Ukraine.

Olga Beloglazova – head of the EY energy center in Central, Eastern, Southeastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Bolat Sarsenov - EY manager, climate change and sustainable development practice.