According to the National Statistics Bureau, Kazakhstan's foreign trade balance in 2024 is projected to have a surplus of $20.1 billion, which is $3.1 billion more than in 2023. This increase is attributed to a rise in exports alongside a slight decrease in imports (mainly in the first half of the year), reports inbusiness.kz citing the analytical center Halyk Finance.
The decline in import volumes was linked to a reduction in the supply of machinery and equipment, which, in turn, was a result of decreased investments in the mining sector and trade, where a traditionally high level of investment imports is observed. This trend may hinder stable and quality economic growth. Another reason is the decrease in re-export operations with the Russian Federation. On the other hand, the growth of exports was supported by high oil prices and an increase in the export of metals and chemical products. The structure of exports remained predominantly raw material-based. In this context, it is crucial to direct government support measures towards the development of non-raw material exports, especially in the medium- and high-tech product segments, analysts note.
"In 2025, an increase in export figures is expected due to the full launch of the expansion project at the Tengiz field. However, this effect may be partially offset by Kazakhstan's commitments under OPEC+ and potential declines in oil prices. At the same time, imports are expected to rise slightly due to stable domestic demand and fiscal stimulation. Overall, in 2025, we anticipate a moderate current account deficit of around 1.3% of GDP," writes HF analyst Sanjar Kaldarov.
According to the NSB, in 2024, Kazakhstan's foreign trade balance recorded a significant surplus of $21.8 billion, an increase of 16.6% year-on-year (from $18.7 billion in 2023). Over the last five years, this is the highest trade balance value, excluding the anomalous year of 2022, when export volumes sharply increased due to re-exports to Russia.
Fig. 1. Trade Balance, $ billion
Source: NSB
The positive trade balance last year was achieved due to an increase in exports alongside a simultaneous decline in imports. In 2024, the volume of goods exported grew by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching $81.6 billion (up from $79.1 billion in 2023). However, export dynamics throughout the year showed some volatility: after a 1.7% year-on-year decrease in the first quarter, exports rose by 7.6% year-on-year and 6.8% year-on-year in the second and third quarters, respectively, before declining by 0.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. As a result, the past year saw a positive but fairly restrained dynamic in goods exports.
The volume of goods imported in 2024 totaled $59.8 billion, down by 1.0% year-on-year (from $60.4 billion in 2023). Throughout the year, import dynamics also exhibited mixed trends. In the first quarter, import volumes dropped sharply by 9.5% year-on-year, while in the second quarter, they decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. In the third quarter, imports rose by 0.6% year-on-year, and in the fourth quarter, the growth rate accelerated to 6.6% year-on-year. This prevented imports from declining more sharply on a yearly basis, keeping them close to 2023 levels.
The key reason for the decline in goods imports in 2024 was a reduction in machinery and equipment imports, which accounted for the largest share at 42.9% of total imports. This was linked to decreased investments in fixed capital in the mining sector and trade, as well as a decline in re-export operations with the Russian Federation. In 2024, machinery and equipment imports fell by 6.0% year-on-year or by $1.6 billion in absolute terms, along with declines in textile categories (-$0.2 billion), footwear and leather goods (-$0.2 billion), and raw leather (-$0.1 billion). Meanwhile, imports of fuel and energy products increased by 17.8% year-on-year (+$0.3 billion), food products by 6.2% year-on-year (+$0.4 billion), and chemical products by 5.0% year-on-year (+$0.5 billion), partially offsetting declines in other categories.
Conversely, the country's exports in 2024 were supported by high oil prices, which, despite a drop in the fourth quarter, averaged $80.7 per barrel over the year. As a result, Kazakhstan's oil export revenues increased by 1.2% year-on-year, totaling $42.7 billion. In 2024, metal exports rose by 13.3% year-on-year (+$1.3 billion). Chemical product exports grew by 20.9% year-on-year (+$1.2 billion), and machinery and equipment exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year (+$0.4 billion). The most significant decline in exports was observed in food products, which fell by 5.7% year-on-year, or by $0.3 billion, amid government restrictions.
Overall, the structure of the country's exports did not undergo significant changes. The main export products of Kazakhstan became mineral products, low-processed metals, and food, which together accounted for 83.1% of total exports in 2024. According to HF analysts, to reduce the economy's dependence on raw material prices, government support measures should focus on developing non-raw material exports, particularly the export and re-export of medium- and high-tech goods. Their dynamics should serve as a key indicator of the effectiveness of the country's industrial policy.
Fig. 2. Export Structure by Product Groups, %
Source: NSB
Fig. 3. Import Structure by Product Groups, %
Source: NSB
According to projections, by mid-2025, the expansion project at the Tengiz field is expected to be fully operational. Consequently, estimates suggest that in 2025, oil production at Tengiz will increase by 24.8% year-on-year, reaching 34.7 million tons compared to 27.8 million tons in 2024, which should positively impact export figures. At the same time, it is important to emphasize that Kazakhstan's commitments under OPEC+ continue to be in effect, which the country exceeded in January 2025 amid the test launch of the new plant at Tengiz. Therefore, some uncertainty remains regarding the exact volumes of production and oil exports expansion this year.
Moreover, the projected decline in oil prices will have a dampening effect on oil exports. According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be around $73 per barrel. This is due to a slowdown in oil demand growth in China alongside a shift to alternative energy sources, as well as anticipated increases in oil production in non-OPEC+ countries. Donald Trump's policies may lead to an increase in shale oil production in the U.S., which will also put additional pressure on global prices.
At the same time, forecast scenarios indicate moderate growth in imports to Kazakhstan in 2025, driven by stable domestic demand and high levels of government spending to implement infrastructure and investment projects. However, the volatility of the tenge exchange rate and rising inflation both within Kazakhstan and in trading partner countries, particularly Russia, may introduce further adjustments to the forecasts. Overall, considering the above, a moderate current account deficit of around 1.3% of GDP is expected in 2025, according to the report.