From 2019 to the first half of 2024, over 4 million Kazakhs have drastically changed their professions and transitioned to entirely different sectors. More than 2.6 million working-age citizens have changed their place of employment by relocating to another region, as reported by inbusiness.kz referencing Energyprom.kz.
This data is based on the results of astudy conducted as part of experimental statistics by specialists from the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is available on an interactive dashboard. The foundation for collecting information on labor mobility was anonymized reports on mandatory pension contributions of employees. When a person changes jobs, information about the new employer's registration location and type of activity is sent to the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF).
According to the analysis results, more than 600,000 Kazakhs change their area of activity each year. The labor market is sensitive to changes, and the number of those who radically altered their work direction increases during crises. This was evident in the first year of the pandemic, when the number of people seeking change in their jobs doubled to 1.2 million. In the first half of 2024, 265.9 thousand Kazakhs changed their field of activity.
A similar trend was observed among those who changed their place of residence due to work. The annual number of such Kazakhs has remained around 400,000 for the past few years. Only in 2020 did this number double to 863.8 thousand.
Through cross-analysis of data, information was also gathered about those who decided to start anew—relocating to another region and changing their field of activity. The number of such Kazakhs in recent years has been approximately 2 million, with an average annual count exceeding 280,000, and in the first half of this year—99.4 thousand.
In terms of regions, the main receiving cities are megacities and their agglomerations, as well as certain southern regions. For instance, the migration influx of workers into Almaty region mostly came from Almaty, while in Shymkent, it was from Turkestan region. The study attributes this to factors of pendulum migration and the growth of agglomerations.
The map indicates data from several years, as noted by the authors of the review. It shows that Astana has become the only city-recipient where from 2019 to the first half of 2024, there was a negative balance between the number of arrivals and departures: minus 378.5 thousand people. This outcome was solely influenced by the "corona-crisis" year of 2020, when 505.8 thousand people left the capital for the regions and Almaty. When looking at indicators for other full years or for January–June 2024, the "migration-labor" balance of the capital was positive during those periods.
Additionally, the experimental analytics from the NSB clearly show a significant labor flow between Almaty and Astana. This can be seen from the data for the first half of this year. Almost 40% of all Kazakhs who moved to another region—over 64 thousand people—were from Almaty and Astana. Both capitals also ranked among the key recipient regions: 69.9 thousand people relocated there within six months. The southern capital mainly receives migrants from Astana and Almaty region, while the capital attracts personnel from Almaty (33%) and other regions.
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Now, let's look at those who were dissatisfied with their profession and decided to change it. Recall that over the past few years, their number has exceeded 4 million.
The most significant labor movement was noted in sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, professional and technical activities, public administration, and defense. Each of these sectors saw more than 400,000 people leave from 2019 to the first half of 2024. In the last two categories, the balance of such labor flow was negative, meaning that more people left the sector than entered it. Notably, the number of those who left the expert activities was significant. Over these years, more than 785 thousand Kazakhs exited this field. Detailed statistics show that the majority of them—522 thousand people—decided to change professions during the pivotal year of 2020. Where did they go? Half of the leavers transitioned to public service (100.5 thousand people), into trade (86 thousand people), construction (76.8 thousand people), and other sectors.
The sectors that also struggled to fully replenish the labor shortage after former employees left include the utilities sector (balance: minus 4.2 thousand), service industries (minus 16.8 thousand), and administrative services (minus 9.2 thousand). In comparison, the most attractive sectors that saw more workers enter than leave include education, with a labor balance of 161.1 thousand from 2019 to the first half of 2024. Many new workers also joined the construction (95.7 thousand), healthcare (43.8 thousand), and manufacturing (42.4 thousand) sectors.
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Despite the positive balance of leavers and entrants in healthcare over these years, labor shifts in hospitals are typically perceived painfully and lead to numerous complaints from patients. The chart below indicates which specific sectors of the economy attracted former healthcare workers, whose number has totaled over 110 thousand from 2019 to the first half of 2024. Among the sectors that half of the leavers moved to were education (21.4 thousand), trade (18.8 thousand), and public administration (14.3 thousand). Another quarter transitioned to sectors such as expert activities (9.9 thousand), manufacturing (6.9 thousand), and other services (8.8 thousand).
Energyprom compares salaries in these sectors with the income levels that the healthcare system is willing to offer its employees. According to NSB data, in the first half of 2024, the salary of those treating Kazakhs was one of the lowest: only 304.6 thousand tenge. The sectors to which half of those who left healthcare went could only offer slightly more: in education—315.3 thousand tenge, in public administration—321.8 thousand tenge, and in trade—343.9 thousand tenge. Those who transitioned to expert activities (543.6 thousand tenge) or manufacturing (453.4 thousand tenge) saw a more significant increase in their income.
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Previously, we reported on how many Kazakhs are dissatisfied with their salary and wish to change jobs, according to a study by a job search and recruitment service.