In 2024, Kazakhstan recorded the highest demographic burden in the past decade. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, this year there are 748 dependents—elderly and children—for every 1,000 working-age citizens. Compared to 2014, this figure has increased by 27.6%. A decade ago, there were 586 dependents for every 1,000 workers in the country. Experts refer to a situation where the working population significantly outnumbers children and elderly citizens as demographic dividends. In such cases, the burden on the budget for social protection is still relatively low, allowing resources to be redistributed for investments in human capital. While Kazakhstan had a higher chance of obtaining demographic dividends a decade ago, by 2024, those chances have diminished, reports ranking.kz.
The highest demographic burden is observed in the northern regions of Kazakhstan. In the North Kazakhstan region, the ratio is 886, while in the Kostanay region, it is 826. Above the national average, these figures can also be found in some southern regions—Kyzylorda (826) and Zhambyl (818) regions, as well as in Shymkent (811). The lowest ratios are noted in Almaty and Astana: 637 and 644, respectively. This is linked to the high migration pressure in these cities. In spring, the portal Energyprom.kz reported that Astana is experiencing a crisis of uncontrolled urbanization. People of working age are moving to megacities in search of jobs.
The growth in demographic burden over these years has been influenced by several factors: life expectancy has increased, mortality rates have decreased, and due to the baby boom during the pandemic, birth rates have risen. According to data from the demographic yearbook of the BNS, the total number of children and elderly citizens over 65 years old reached 7.6 million at the beginning of 2024. This accounts for more than 38% of the total population.
Judging by the demographic development forecasts prepared by experts from the JSC "Center for Labor Resource Development," there will be at least two phases of change in the next 25 years. Starting in 2028, the demographic burden is expected to begin declining, reaching 717 by 2035. After that, a new wave of increased birth rates will commence, and by 2050, the demographic burden ratio will rise to 799 dependents per 1,000 working-age individuals. This forecast is based on a baseline development scenario, which assumes that the population will grow without sharp fluctuations. By 2050, this key demographic indicator is projected to reach 27.6 million people, of which 44%, or 12.2 million citizens, will be children and elderly individuals.
The aging population and the increasing burden on the working society are issues not only for Kazakhstan but also for many other countries. According to UN forecasts, by 2050, the number of people aged over 65 worldwide will double, with the elderly making up 16% of the population. The main indicator of this trend is the increase in life expectancy. Look at how dramatically this figure has changed globally over the past 70 years and how it is expected to change by 2050. In 1950, the life expectancy was only 44.6 years for men and 48.4 years for women. By 2021, the figure for men had increased by more than 20 years—to 68.4 years. Women now live an average of 73.8 years. According to international organization forecasts, in 25 years, life expectancy for men will rise to nearly 75 years, while for women, it will reach 80 years.
This socio-demographic factor is directly influenced by the overall state of the country's economy, citizens' income levels, and the state of healthcare and social protection. For instance, in 2021, in low-income countries, the expected life expectancy for men was only 60 years, while in wealthy nations, it was 77.5 years. A similar gap is predicted by UN experts for 2050.
Regionally, the figures also vary significantly. In Central and South Asia, the expected life expectancy in 2021 was 65.9 years for men and 69.6 years for women. Meanwhile, citizens of European and North American countries lived longer: 73.9 years for men and 80.4 years for women. According to the BNS, in Kazakhstan last year, life expectancy was 71 years for men and 79.1 years for women.
How do elderly Kazakhs assess their situation, financial status, and health? According to the results of sample surveys conducted in 2024, 36.3% of people aged 65 and older are satisfied, while 63.6% are partially satisfied with their lives. The outlook on health is worse: only 28.3% are satisfied with their health status, another 65.7% are partially satisfied, and 5.7% are completely unsatisfied.
Regarding financial security, the situation is ambiguous. Based on survey results, 81% of elderly respondents considered their financial situation to be average, while 14.5% rated it as above average. Only 0.1% identified themselves as low-income. However, when elderly respondents were asked about various deprivations, their answers indirectly confirmed that the number of pensioners with low incomes is significantly higher than 0.1%. For instance, 5.3% of Kazakhstani pensioners cannot afford to eat hot meat or fish dishes at least once every two days, and 3.1% of citizens aged over 58/63 cannot ensure warmth in their homes. Nearly 4% of respondents lack sufficient funds to replace worn-out clothing and shoes with new ones. In the event of unexpected expenses (30,000–40,000 tenge), 24.1% of the elderly would not be able to cover these needs without loans or financial assistance from relatives.