The annual inflation rate in Kazakhstan reached 8.9% by the end of January 2025, with a monthly increase of 1.1%, according to a report by the Kapital.kz business information center, referencing data from the National Statistics Bureau.
For context, the annual inflation rate was 8.6% at the end of December 2024, with a monthly increase of 0.9% for December 2024.
Over the year, prices for paid services increased by 13.8% (up from 13.3% in December 2024), non-food products rose by 8.4% (compared to 8.3% in December 2024), and food products saw a 5.8% increase (up from 5.5% in December 2024). Monthly price levels for food products rose by 1.4%, paid services by 1.1%, and non-food products by 0.6%.
Compared to January of the previous year, tariffs for cold water increased by 43.2%, wastewater disposal by 26.1%, central heating by 23.1%, hot water by 21.3%, electricity by 18.9%, gas transported through distribution networks by 12%, and waste collection by 10.3%.
The prices for comprehensive recreation services rose by 26%, communication services by 16.8%, healthcare services by 12%, hairdressing and personal care services by 11.9%, maintenance and repair services for personal vehicles by 11.4%, public catering by 10.9%, and recreational and sports activities by 9.3%. The cost of rail passenger transport increased by 18.6%, city buses by 10.5%, and air passenger transport by 7.2%. Rent for housing rose by 15.3%.
The price level for audiovisual equipment increased by 41.5%, jewelry and watches by 24.9%, new domestically assembled passenger cars by 22.9%, clothing and footwear by 10.6%, furniture and household items by 10.3%, and pharmaceutical products by 8.6%. Firewood became 15.4% more expensive, liquefied gas in cylinders by 10.2%, and coal by 8.6%.
Notable price increases were observed for potatoes at 59.3%, onions at 25.1%, mineral and drinking water at 16.7%, tobacco products at 14.6%, confectionery at 13.3%, butter at 13%, soft drinks at 12.3%, processed and canned fish at 11.9%, and fruit and vegetable juices at 11%. Conversely, prices for buckwheat groats decreased by 21.6% and carrots by 5.3%.
Regionally, in January 2025, inflation rates exceeding the national average were recorded in twelve regions, with the highest rates in Astana (11.2%), Karaganda (9.9%), West Kazakhstan (9.7%), and North Kazakhstan (9.6%) regions.
The most significant contributions to the annual inflation rate came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.2 percentage points), housing services (1.7 percentage points), and clothing and footwear (1 percentage point).
Over the year, fruit and vegetable prices increased by 8.8%, meat and meat products by 4.2%, contributing 0.5 percentage points to inflation. The price rise in dairy products by 6.3% contributed 0.3 p.p., oils and fats (8.8%), non-alcoholic beverages (8.5%), and bakery products and cereals (3.3%) each contributed 0.2 percentage points to the annual inflation.
Housing and communal services prices rose by 15.2% over the year, contributing 1.7 percentage points to inflation. In January 2025, compared to January of the previous year, housing rental rates increased by 15.3%, contributing 0.6 p.p. to annual inflation, with cold water tariffs (43.2%), central heating (23.1%), electricity (18.9%), and maintenance and repair of residential premises (5.8%) each contributing 0.2 percentage points.
Previously, it was reported that the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to refine its inflation reduction strategy in collaboration with the government.
At the end of January, the "Center for Applied Economic Research (AERC)" published its latest macroeconomic review of Kazakhstan. Analysts expect Kazakhstan's real GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2025 (year-on-year), which is higher than the previous forecast of 4.0%. Meanwhile, AERC has downgraded its consumer inflation forecast, expecting it to average 7.0% (year-on-year), compared to the October review's estimate of 6.7%.