The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan in 2025 down to 5.2%, while the projection for 2026 stands at 4.5%, according to the bank's updated Regional Economic Prospects report, as reported by Interfax-Kazakhstan.
In September of last year, the EBRD had predicted a GDP growth rate of 5.5% for Kazakhstan in 2025.
“GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 5.2% in 2025, driven by the planned expansion of the Tengiz oil field, before slowing to 4.5% in 2026,” the EBRD report states.
As reported by Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektanov, the GDP growth rate for Kazakhstan in 2024 was 4.8%. According to government forecasts, the GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2025 is expected to be 5.6%, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.4% over the next five years.
The World Bank (WB) predicts a GDP growth of 4.7% for Kazakhstan in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
It is worth noting that the increase in the VAT rate from 12% to 16% and the reduction of the tax registration threshold to 15 million tenge will result in a slowdown of Kazakhstan's GDP growth by 42 basis points, as stated earlier by Deputy Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin.