The share of oil refining in Kazakhstan's GDP structure is less than 1% (0.8% for 2023 and 0.6% for the first nine months of 2024). This was announced during a meeting of the economic growth task force, which focused on the potential of the oil and gas sector this year and the investment-economic development of the Mangistau region, chaired by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, as reported by primeminister.kz.
With a projected real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, the target for 2025 is set at 7%. This is a very high yet achievable figure, provided that investment projects in the real sector of the economy are implemented in a timely manner.
As stated by the Vice Minister of Energy, Erlan Akkendzhanov, oil refining amounted to 1.53 million tons in January, representing 104% compared to January of the previous year. This figure also exceeds the plan for the first month of 2025 by 0.6%.
The oil refining sector is characterized by the production of high value-added products. It has been noted that after the completion of the expansion project of CaspiBitum LLP, expected by the end of May 2025, its processing capacity will increase from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons. Consequently, the total processing capacity in Kazakhstan is projected to rise from 18 million to 18.5 million tons by 2026.
The Deputy Prime Minister listened to the issues regarding the loading of large refineries and mini oil refineries.
"In the absence of any serious external factors, the oil refining industry has a good chance to increase its contribution to Kazakhstan's GDP this year," noted Serik Zhumangarin.
Additionally, the components of the targeted physical growth index for the Mangistau region were discussed. With a growth target of 7% for this year, as of January, low performance indicators were noted for agriculture and fisheries (87.5% against a plan of 101%) and trade (102% instead of the targeted 105.4%). The Deputy Prime Minister instructed to ensure the achievement of the set plans in the coming months. Given the significant share of trade in the country's GDP (19% in 2024), one of the upcoming task force meetings will focus on trade and transport with storage.
The meeting also addressed the reasons for the low utilization of funds for budgetary investment projects in the region. The Deputy Prime Minister tasked the team to review all projects requiring urgent financing through the lens of their impact on increasing contributions to the real sector of the economy.
It was previously reported that the volume of oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan for 2024 amounted to 87.7 million tons against a plan of 90.3 million tons, or 97.1%. The production plan for oil and gas condensate for 2025 is set at 96.2 million tons.
On January 24, 2025, under the Future Expansion Project (PEP), Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO) commenced crude oil production at the new Third Generation Plant (TPP) at the Tengiz field. In the coming months, TCO plans to increase the total volume of crude oil production at Tengiz by an additional 12 million tons per year. After all production facilities reach full capacity, it is expected that the total volume of crude oil production will reach approximately 40 million tons per year.