The consumer confidence index in Kazakhstan showed a significant recovery in December 2024 after a decline in November, reaching 104.8 points, marking the second highest figure in the history of the survey. The improvement in respondents' sentiments occurred across all five sub-indices. It is worth noting that throughout 2024, consumer confidence among residents changed little, rising by only 0.1 points (December 2024 figure compared to December 2023). Overall, Kazakhstani people have become more pessimistic regarding their personal financial situation, but this was offset by improved assessments of favorable conditions for major purchases, as indicated in the research by Freedom Finance Global.
The sub-index predicting changes in personal financial conditions over the next 12 months recovered by 4.5 points, returning to the October level of 132.5 points. The proportion of those who believe their personal financial situation will improve increased from 47.2% in November to 50.8% in December. However, compared to the end of 2023, this figure is significantly lower, as a year ago, the share of optimists was 53%.
The sub-index for assessing favorable conditions for major purchases rose by 4.1 points compared to November, reaching 74 points. This result is the best in the last four months and is 3.3 points higher than the figure at the end of 2023. The percentage of Kazakhstani citizens who believe current conditions for major purchases are favorable increased from 30% to 31.8%. A year ago, this figure was only 29.3%.
Inflation expectations among Kazakhstanis have shown an increase for the second consecutive month. Over the past month, 42.6% of respondents (up from 40.9% in November) indicated a significant rise in prices. Over the course of the year, the proportion who noticed rapid price increases grew at a similar pace: from 49.9% in November to 52.4% at the time of the last data collection. However, compared to last year, when inflation was somewhat higher, these figures have decreased by 5-6 percentage points.
In contrast, inflation expectations among Kazakhstanis have declined, unlike the assessments after the annual highs in November. The share of people expecting a significant rise in prices over the next month sharply fell from 30.6% to 24.7%, while the proportion anticipating accelerated price growth over the next 12 months decreased from 27.5% in November to 25.6% at the time of the last survey.
Among specific goods and services, the significant rise in food prices continues to worry most Kazakhstanis. The top four most noticeably increased prices, according to the population, have remained unchanged for the 16th consecutive month. This includes the categories "Meat and Poultry," "Milk and Dairy Products," "Bread and Bakery Products," and "Vegetables and Fruits." The proportion of people noticing significant price increases for all the aforementioned products rose on average by 1.9 percentage points compared to November, which corresponds to the inflation assessment survey. The most notable increase was seen in the share of those reporting a strong rise in prices for bread and bakery products – from 21.1% to 23.6%. However, the strongest growth rates (4-5 percentage points) were observed for the following products: vegetable oil, flour, and tea with coffee. According to official statistics, prices for bread increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in December, while vegetable oil saw a notable 2.9% month-on-month rise. There was also a more significant monthly price increase for coffee – 0.8% month-on-month.
Devaluation expectations among Kazakhstanis have risen for the third consecutive month, reaching record levels in the history of the survey amid a 1.5% increase in the dollar exchange rate over the month and the achievement of new highs. According to the survey results, the share of Kazakhstanis expecting a weakening of the tenge over the next year grew from 60.7% to 64.2%. Over the course of a month, this share increased from 44.9% to 46.1%. It is noteworthy that compared to December 2023, the proportion of pessimists increased by 12.4 percentage points for the first question and by 15.4 percentage points for the second.
Thus, the dynamics of inflation assessments and expectations in December carried a positive tone throughout the region after the pessimistic trends of November, September, and August. It should be noted that inflationary sentiments have at least remained at the same level or slightly improved in the region. Kazakhstan experienced a noticeable decline in inflation expectations after several months of highs in November. On the other hand, inflation assessments continued their slight decline.
Devaluation expectations in Central Asian countries overall showed a decrease, except for Kazakhstan, where the rise in these expectations has continued for the third consecutive month amid new historical records of the dollar to tenge exchange rate. The indicators have once again reached record levels in the history of the survey.
The 18th wave of the consumer confidence survey among the population of four Central Asian countries showed relatively positive results across states and key issues. In two countries, a neutral dynamic of consumer confidence is observed, while in the other two, both growth and decline are occurring. The past year of 2024 ended not too well for the region, as two countries showed a decline in consumer confidence. While Tajikistan's decline was not the most severe, the decrease in confidence among residents of Uzbekistan was much more pronounced. Against the backdrop of a sharp improvement in the sentiments of Kyrgyz citizens, this led to Uzbekistan losing its second position in the country ranking. Kazakhstan, occupying the last place, continues to show a neutral annual dynamic overall. It is noteworthy that all four countries ended the year in a positive zone, with generally positive responses from residents significantly outweighing negative ones, except for Kazakhstan, where this difference is insignificant. As for inflationary sentiments, they have noticeably worsened at the end of summer across the region. In particular, inflation expectations have increased quite noticeably compared to 2023. Devaluation expectations in 2024 showed an overall neutral dynamic. While Kazakhstan and Tajikistan saw an increase, in the other two countries, residents were more optimistic than at the end of 2023.
“The last month of 2024 turned out to be moderately positive for Central Asian countries in terms of inflation and expectations of weakening national currencies. In Kazakhstan, a recovery in the consumer confidence index was recorded after the decline in November. As a result, 2024 ended neutrally for Kazakhstan. Consumers showed slightly greater confidence in the favorable conditions for major purchases compared to the previous year. On the other hand, forecasts for the next 12 months have slightly worsened,” summarized the findings of the survey analyst from Freedom Finance Global, Daniyar Orazbaev.
According to him, in Uzbekistan, the monthly dynamics were neutral after a weak November. Overall, in 2024, consumer confidence in Uzbekistan significantly decreased, ceding the second position in the conditional ranking to Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistanis demonstrated a widespread decrease in optimism across all five questions. The least confident are the residents of the country regarding the improvement of their personal financial situation in the next 12 months. Moreover, over the year, the share of respondents positively assessing the actual improvement in both their personal financial situation and the economic situation has decreased.
In Kyrgyzstan, the CCI also showed a neutral dynamic in December after a decent growth in November. As a result, the past year was positive for Kyrgyzstan, as significantly more residents showed higher consumer confidence than in 2023. The number of people noticing an improvement in the economic situation, as well as conditions for major purchases, significantly exceeds last year's figures. Moreover, more Kyrgyz citizens have positive forecasts regarding both their personal financial situation and the economy. Consequently, Kyrgyzstan finishes the year in second place in Central Asia. The regional leader in CCI, Tajikistan, experienced a sharp monthly decline in consumer confidence in December. Overall, there was a noticeable drop in the index over 2024. Nevertheless, Tajikistan's lead remains significant despite its decline in December. It is noteworthy that, as well as throughout the past year, far fewer residents of the country considered conditions for major purchases favorable. While the annual dynamics of three indicators were positive, the strong and sharp decline in optimism regarding the aforementioned issue dragged overall consumer confidence down.
In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires monthly, in Kyrgyzstan – 1,600, and in Tajikistan – 1,200, proportionate to the population size in the surveyed countries. The studies are based on methodologies used to obtain consumer confidence indices in many countries around the world and adapted for local tasks by United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is telephone surveys. The survey questionnaire is adapted: the research is conducted in the respondents' native language.