Experts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan have raised their inflation forecasts for 2025 to 7.5%, reports the business information center Kapital.kz, citing the monetary regulator's press service.
The survey parameters include the price of Brent crude oil, economic growth in Kazakhstan, inflation, the base rate, as well as the export and import of goods and services, and the exchange rate of the tenge.
According to the National Bank, the scenario conditions for oil prices in 2025 were updated in January of this year. Based on median estimates, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $75.0 per barrel in 2025 (previously $76.5 per barrel). The forecast for 2026 remains at $74.0 per barrel, while expectations for 2027 are set at $75 per barrel.
The forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively. In 2027, experts expect the growth rate to remain at 4.5%.
"Analysts have increased the inflation forecasts for 2025 from 6.9% to 7.5%, and for 2026 from 6.0% to 6.5%. Inflation for 2027 is estimated at 5.6%. Following the changes in inflation estimates, expectations for the base rate have also been revised. The median forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted from 12.5% to 14.7%, and for 2026 from 10.3% to 11.8%. The base rate for 2027 is projected at 10.5%," the National Bank summarized.
The survey included 12 organizations involved in analyzing and forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. Respondents include professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies.
It is important to note that the macroeconomic survey does not contain forecasts from the National Bank. It represents an overview of independent opinions, assessments, and expectations from professional market participants regarding the development of the situation in both the Kazakh and global markets.