Analysts have raised their expectations for the base rate due to higher inflation forecasts, reports the business information center Kapital.kz, citing the press service of the National Bank.
As explained, the parameters of the survey include the price of Brent crude oil, the economic growth of Kazakhstan, inflation, the base rate, the export and import of goods and services, as well as the exchange rate of the tenge.
Oil Prices and Economic Growth
In February of this year, the scenario conditions for the price of oil for 2025 remained at $75 per barrel, while those for 2026 and 2027 were revised downward to $72 per barrel.
The forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2025 have improved from 4.7% to 4.9%. In 2026 and 2027, GDP growth is still expected to be at 4.5%.
Inflation and Base Rate
Analysts' inflation forecasts have been revised upward across the entire forecasting horizon. Thus, the median forecast for 2025 has been increased from 7.5% to 8.7%, for 2026 from 6.5% to 7%, and for 2027 from 5.6% to 5.8%.
Against the backdrop of higher inflation forecasts, expectations for the average annual base rate for 2025 and 2026 have risen. This reflects that analysts expect the base rate to be increased or maintained at high levels for a longer period than previously anticipated. Expectations for 2025 have been raised from 14.7% to 15.3%, and for 2026 from 11.8% to 12.7% on average for the year. Expectations for 2027 have decreased from 10.5% to 10%.
About the Composition of Survey Respondents
The survey involved 15 organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. The respondents include professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies. The composition of respondents in the macroeconomic survey has been supplemented by analysts from BCC Invest and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development.
Recall that earlier, the majority of experts surveyed by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan stated that they expect the base rate to be maintained. They believe that the room for its reduction in the next 12 months has significantly narrowed.